Brazil's climate halo challenged

Brazil’s energy, industrial and transport sectors now account for some 30 per cent of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions – compared with just 18 per cent in 1994.

The conclusion from preliminary figures in the latest inventory of Brazilian emissions suggests that deforestation and other land-use changes play a much less dominant role than the commonly-quoted 75 per cent of carbon dioxide emissions.

A study for Brazil’s environment ministry estimates that CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels for transport, industry, electricity and other uses increased from some 225 million tonnes in 1994 to 334 million tonnes in 2007, a rise of 49 per cent.

Part of the rise stems from increased use of fossil fuels in the generation of electricity, which saw emissions from this sector more than double in the 13-year period, although hydro-power continues to contribute the overwhelming proportion of Brazil’s domestic generating capacity.

The greater use of fuels such as gas, coal and oil in power generation led to an increase in the carbon intensity of Brazil’s power sector from 42 tonnes of CO2 per Gigawatt-hour in 1994, to 54 tonnes in 2007.

Transport

The bulk of the increase in fossil fuel emissions came from road transport, despite the increased use of sugarcane-derived ethanol which is now capable of powering some 90 per cent of new cars with “flex-fuel” engines, able to run on any mixture of gasoline and alcohol.

Some 50 million tonnes of additional CO2 emissions are estimated to be emitted each year from Brazil’s roads and highways, with the majority (30m) coming from diesel, and the next biggest portions from gasoline (15m) and natural gas (5m).

Fossil fuel CO2 emissions from industry rose nearly 40 per cent, from 74 million tonnes in 1994 to 103 million tonnes in 2007.

The figures are part of a comprehensive inventory of Brazil’s greenhouse gas emissions due to be published before the end of the year. It will be the first assessment of the country’s emissions since its official submission to the UN climate change convention in 2004, which was based on 1994 greenhouse gas data.

Deforestation

Although figures for the agricultural sector and deforestation have yet to be published, officials are publicly speculating that each is now reckoned to account for about a third of total emissions.

This suggests that aggressive action on reducing deforestation, although important, will go only part of the way towards curbing the growth in Brazilian emissions.

However, a new study indicates that recent efforts to prevent deforestation in the Amazon are having a globally-significant impact on carbon dioxide emissions.

The study, by the Worldwide Fund for Nature (WWF), University of Minas Gerais and the Amazon Research Institute (IPAM), estimates that new protected areas created since 2003 under the Amazon Protected Areas Programme (ARPA) will prevent emissions of more than five billion tonnes of CO2 by 2050.

That adds up to some 16 per cent of current annual global emissions and 70 per cent of the total savings envisaged in the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol.

This article was published at www.pointcarbon.com